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Tropical Storm Isaias forecast to hit U.S. Gulf Coast as 2026's first hurricane

Oct 8, 6:25 AM2 min read

Drafted by AI from the sources below, fact-checked by the Ajako Taja Editorial Team · How we use AI

AI Summary

Tropical Storm Isaias is strengthening off Mexico and is forecast to become the first hurricane of the 2026 season before hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Isaias formed Wednesday off eastern Mexico and is expected to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass on the Florida Panhandle. Forecasters expect Isaias to reach hurricane strength by Thursday morning. BBC News and CBS News reported that the system could intensify further into a Category 2 storm by Friday, bringing dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rain.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. According to the Associated Press, the storm was centered about 540 miles southwest of the Mississippi River’s mouth on Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. CBS News noted that residents have already begun stockpiling food, water, and other essentials in anticipation of the storm's arrival.

Local events are already being affected by the forecast. In Gulf Shores, Alabama, organizers canceled the National Shrimp Festival, which drew 325,000 people last year. Festival Chairman Rob Barnas stated that the safety of visitors, vendors, and volunteers was the top priority. The BBC reported that while the storm will weaken over land, it could still bring disruptive weather to the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.

Isaias is the ninth tropical storm of the Atlantic season but the first predicted to reach hurricane status. The Associated Press reported the storm is on track to tie or break a 121-year-old record for the latest arrival of an initial hurricane in a season, a record that has stood since October 8, 1905. Forecasters expect the storm to dump 3 to 6 inches of rain along the coast, with isolated totals reaching 10 inches.

Background

The 2026 Atlantic season has been quieter than average due to a growing El Niño pattern. The BBC reports that El Niño increases wind shear over the Caribbean and Atlantic, which has suppressed hurricane development until now.